Currency Investing Throughout Recent Centuries
Joseph Chen  1@  
1 : University of California [Davis]

The literature on currency investing generally bases its analysis on the most recent period since 1983 and uses short-term bills as the investment vehicle. I analyze the risk and return characteristics of currency investing over an extended period using data that reaches back as far as 1788, and I extend the analysis to long-term bonds. Excess returns on currencies have been predictable throughout history across various periods and robust to using long-term bonds. The risk premia estimates indicate nominal exchange rates are not stationary and are informative about the time-variations in the pricing kernel in a reduced-form pricing model.


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