The vanishing of currency puzzles is a puzzle too
1 : Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Several long-standing currency puzzles have been reversed in recent years, including the forward premium puzzle, carry trade profitability, and the exchange rate “disconnect”. We provide a common framework for understanding these reversals, which relies on the structural breaks found in currency returns in 2005, and on a concurrent shift in the relative importance of global and local currency risk factors. We associate this shift with the growth in the U.S. oil sector, stronger impact of the oil price on U.S. inflation, and weaker link between the real interest rates in the U.S. and other advanced economies since 2005.